Trend Following

Trend Following is a technical system that is used to move into and out of stocks and other asset classes when technical conditions deteriorate. The goal is to limit losses during major downturns. Validea runs its trend following system on 45 major asset classes and our guru-based strategies.
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Asset Class Current Signal Last Signal Change Trend Following
Return
Stocks
S&P 500 (^GSPC) BUY 4/16/2020 8.6%
Russell 2000 (^RUT) BUY 4/30/2020 5.6%
Developed International (VEA) BUY 5/7/2020 3.4%
Emerging Markets (VWO) BUY 5/7/2020 7.7%
NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) BUY 1/17/2019 15.1%
Dow Jones (^DJI) BUY 4/30/2020 7.6%
MSCI EAFE (EFA) BUY 5/7/2020 6.4%
Other Asset Classes
Preferred Stock (PFF) BUY 4/23/2020 5.4%
Commodities (DBC) BUY 10/8/2020 2.9%
Gold (GLD) SELL 2/18/2021 6.6%
REITs (VNQ) BUY 11/12/2020 4.6%
High Yield Bonds (SHYG) BUY 5/21/2020 3.7%
Long-Term Bonds (BLV) SELL 1/7/2021 6.7%
Intermediate Term Bonds (BIV) SELL 1/28/2021 5.3%
Emerging Market Bonds (EMLC) BUY 8/27/2020 0.7%
Bank Loans (BKLN) BUY 7/9/2020 2.7%
Guru Portfolios
Validea Hot List BUY 4/30/2020 6.5%
P/E/Growth Investor (Lynch) BUY 7/9/2020 6.6%
Momentum Investor (Validea) BUY 5/7/2020 11.4%
Growth Investor (Zweig) BUY 5/7/2020 7.2%
Patient Investor (Buffett) BUY 4/30/2020 8.6%
Low PE Investor (Neff) BUY 4/8/2020 3.3%
Growth/Value Investor (O'Shaughn) BUY 5/7/2020 6.8%
Contrarian Investor (Dreman) BUY 11/12/2020 8.1%
Small-Cap Growth Investor (Fool) BUY 5/7/2020 7.1%
Price/Sales Investor (Fisher) BUY 7/23/2020 6.1%
Value Investor (Graham) BUY 7/23/2020 7.0%
Book/Market Investor (Piotroski) BUY 11/12/2020 2.7%
Top Five Gurus BUY 11/5/2020 10.5%
Earnings Yield Investor (Greenblatt) BUY 11/12/2020 3.3%
P/B Growth Investor (Mohanram) BUY 4/16/2020 13.7%
Shareholder Yield Investor (Faber) BUY 5/7/2020 20.3%
Value Composite Investor (O'Shaughn) BUY 10/8/2020 8.4%
Twin Momentum Investor (Huang) BUY 4/16/2020 16.9%
Millennial Investor (O'Shaughn) BUY 4/30/2020 16.2%
Earnings Revision Investor (Thorp) BUY 4/23/2020 17.0%
Acquirer's Multiple Investor (Carlisle) BUY 7/23/2020 13.4%
Quantitative Momentum Investor (Gray) BUY 4/23/2020 13.1%
Private Equity Investor (Validea) BUY 10/8/2020 6.6%
Multi-Factor Investor (Van Vliet) BUY 12/17/2020 6.6%
Investment Styles
Large-Cap Growth (JKE) BUY 1/17/2019 9.0%
Large-Cap Value (JKF) BUY 10/8/2020 6.1%
Mid-Cap Growth (JKH) BUY 4/16/2020 11.7%
Mid-Cap Value (JKI) BUY 10/8/2020 10.9%
Small-Cap Growth (JKK) BUY 4/23/2020 8.1%
Small-Cap Value (JKL) BUY 10/8/2020 7.7%
Sectors
Retail (XRT) BUY 4/30/2020 10.0%
Homebuilders (XHB) BUY 4/30/2020 4.8%
Energy (XLE) BUY 11/12/2020 8.2%
Consumer Staples (XLP) BUY 7/1/2020 4.7%
Healthcare (XLV) BUY 6/6/2019 5.9%
Industrials (XLI) BUY 5/7/2020 8.1%
Basic Materials (XLB) BUY 4/23/2020 9.3%
Utilities (XLU) BUY 10/1/2020 7.3%
Technology (XLK) BUY 1/17/2019 10.6%
Financials (XLF) BUY 10/8/2020 4.8%
* Returns are model returns and do not reflect actual trading. Full performance disclaimer
Performance Disclaimer: Returns presented on Validea.com are model returns and do not represent actual trading. As a result, they do not incorporate any commissions or other trading costs or fees. Model portfolios with inception dates on or after 12/30/2005 include a combination of back tested and live model returns. The back-tested performance results shown are hypothetical and are not the result of real-time management of actual accounts. The back-testing of performance differs from actual account performance because the investment strategy may be adjusted at any time, for any reason and can continue to be changed until desired or better performance results are achieved. Back-tested returns are presented to provide general information regarding how the underlying strategy behind the portfolio performed in our historical testing. A back-tested strategy has the benefit of hindsight and the results do not reflect the impact that material economic or market factors may have had on advisor's decision-making if actual client assets were being managed using this approach. The model portfolios offered on Validea are concentrated and as a result they will exhibit high levels of volatility and their performance can be substantially impacted by the performance of individual positions.

Optimal portfolios presented on Validea.com represent the rebalancing period that has led to the best historical performance for each of our equity models. Each optimal portfolio was determined after the fact with performance information that was not available at portfolio inception. As a result, an investor could not have invested in the optimal portfolio since its inception. Optimal portfolios are presented to allow investors to quickly determine the portfolio size and rebalancing period that has performed best for each of our models in our historical testing.

Both the model portfolio and benchmark returns presented for all equity portfolios on Validea.com are not inclusive of dividends. Returns for our ETF portfolios and trend following system, and the benchmarks they are compared to, are inclusive of dividends. The S&P 500 is presented as a benchmark because it is the most widely followed benchmark of the overall US market and is most often used by investors for return comparison purposes. As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss and investors may incur a loss despite a past history of gains. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Results will vary with economic and market conditions.